Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

350
FXUS64 KAMA 152320
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions persist through
  Monday afternoon. Watching for potentially extreme fire weather
  conditions Sunday and Monday with high winds and extremely low
  RH.

- Severe thunderstorm chances may exist in the far eastern
  combined Panhandles both Saturday and Sunday depending the
  location of a dryline.

- A cold front late Monday is expected to help bring temperatures
  back to near normal Tuesday onward.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Small showers and storms are ongoing across the southern TX
Panhandle and the northwestern Panhandles. Outflow from
thunderstorms has produced wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph and
those storms will continue over the next few hours. The wind will
decrease this evening, but any outflow and storms will lead to
various wind directions as well as speeds. Forecast remains
largely on track right now, but the wind speeds and gusts will be
very hard to determine this evening.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Continuing to monitor for the potential of some isolated to
scattered dry thunderstorms across the combined Panhandles this
afternoon/evening. Upper level support may be present from some
perturbations in the flow aloft. H7 theta-e shows positive advection
across the northern and southern combined Panhandles with an axis of
negative advection through central portions suggesting storms may
not have as much coverage as they did yesterday. The NamNEST shows
storms along firing along a boundary near the Dalhart to Beaver.
North of this boundary winds were expected to be light and mainly
northerly. However, with the chance of very inefficient rain
producing thunderstorms winds may increase across the northern
combined Panhandles leading to a couple to three hours of
critical fire weather conditions. Confidence is storm coverage
south of this boundary is low. However, winds are expected to be
prevailing around 20 gust 30 mph out of the southwest with
additional chances for lightning started fires.

Tonight, winds briefly drop off after turning northerly as this
surface boundary travels further south. Winds in the southeast Texas
Panhandle should remain south of the boundary and maintain winds
upwards of 15 mph. During the afternoon the far southeast can see
sustained winds upwards of 25 mph and the far northwest combined
Panhandle may see winds reach the 15 to 20 mph range. Between
these two areas winds are expected to be lighter, maybe between 10
to 15 mph out of the southwest. This will help eliminate the wind
component to fire weather conditions. However, temperatures are
expected to rise into mid to upper 90s again. Especially with
clearer skies thanks to negative H7 theta-e advection. This will
lead to RH values as low as 7 in the west and 10-15 percent in the
east. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be
expected once again, especially in the western to southern
combined Panhandles. Thunderstorms chances are less likely with
only the far eastern TX Panhandle having a slight chance east of a
potential dryline forming. Overnight Sat night, this dryline is
expected to retreat back to around the central combined Panhandles
with breezy. winds on both sides of this surface boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Sunday, an upper level system is progged to enter the Great Basin
Region and bring increasing southwest winds aloft to the combined
Panhandles with the approaching trough. The increasing winds aloft
will help increase surface winds Sunday into Monday with a leeside
low developing late Saturday night. The dryline that forms from this
low will need to be watched, as there will be potential for severe
storms in the eastern combined Panhandles Sunday afternoon into
evening. West of the this dry line strong southwesterly winds and
dry air will supply critical to extreme fire weather conditions. Not
only that RH values are progged to be well below 10 percent on top
of the cured vegetation that has not been able to green up due to
drought. These conditions are expected to persist into Monday with
higher probabilities to see wind gusts exceed 50 mph. There is maybe
a 10 percent chance to see gusts exceed 50 mph on Sunday in the far
northern to northwest Panhandles. Come Monday though, NBM probs
increase to the 20 to 30 percent across more of the northwestern
third of the combined Panhandles. However, current deterministic
models suggest H5 winds will be the greatest (50-60kts) during the
early morning hours on Mon, before weakening as the system
becomes more and more of an open wave trough. This may be a good
thing to have the highest wind gusts early in the day before the
RH values plummet into the single digits.

This trough entering the Great Plains on Monday will also be sending
a cold front into the Panhandles. There is a bit of uncertainty at
the timing of this cold front with it entering the Panhandles near
sunset. But some guidance suggest there is potential for it to be
through the OK or further by noon. This could cease fire weather
concerns for new starts. However, the timing will need to be honed
in on in case of any ongoing or turnover fires from Sunday. With the
approaching cold front the dryline should push well off to the east
limiting any thunderstorm chances for the combined Panhandles on
Monday.

Afternoon temperatures Tuesday are progged to be in the upper 70s to
80s, and not the 90s thanks to the front Monday night. A secondary
shortwave trough is progged to come through late Tue which may not
only bring rain chances into early Wed, but may also bring cooler
afternoon temperatures Wed with the entire combined Panhandles
seeing highs in the upper 70s. Increased cloud cover from this
system is most likely be contributing to the expected cool
temperatures Wed as well. Confidence is low Wed onward, but Thu is
looking to possibly keep highs well below 90 and even hang on to
some PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at the TAF sites. Thunderstorms are
possible at KDHT over the next few hours. Winds at KDHT/KAMA may
be sporadic due to outflow boundaries from showers and storms. The
wind overnight will be around 10-15 kts or less with variable wind
at KDHT and KGUY. The wind will increase at the end of this TAF
cycle with gusts up to 20-30 kts out of the south.

Muscha

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Dry lightning, dry conditions, and gusty winds remain a concern
for localized critical fire weather conditions today across the
combined Panhandles. Even though RFTIs in the north are forecast
to be prevailing around 1, thunderstorm activity with very little
precipitation may change conditions fast and maintain more
critical conditions for several hours before falling off after
sunset. Parts of the southern and central Texas Panhandle may see
prevailing west to southwest winds around 15 to 20 mph helping to
maintain RFTI around 4 to 6 without thunderstorm involvement. Dry
lightning will still be a concern for these areas as well.

Tomorrow, dry and slightly breezy conditions are expected for
western and southern portions of the combined Panhandles. Winds
may very across the Panhandles with some zones seeing lighter
winds. However, everyone should see RFTIs as high as 4 mainly in
the west and south due to RH.

Sunday, increasing winds with an approaching upper level system
will induce extremely dry and windy conditions to the area,
especially across the central to western combined Panhandles. RH
values are expected to be as low as 5 percent with winds gusting
to 40-45 mph. This will lead to RFTIs upwards of 7 across the
western two thirds of the combined Panhandles. Monday is expected
to be a repeat with a potential for winds to gust slightly higher
at time in the 45-55 mph range. Although lightning will not be of
concern like today, any remaining embers from yesterday, even
todays fires will have a potential to spark new fires. Sunday has
a 10 percent chance to see significant fires, with Monday having
as high as a 30 percent chance. A cold front is expected late
Monday with low confidence on the exact timing of the front.
Generally, for now, expecting the front to enter the OK Panhandle
in the late afternoon/evening time frame.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011>020-317.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...05