Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

434
FXUS64 KAMA 251732
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected in the southwest
  TX Panhandle on Saturday.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday
  afternoon across the combined Panhandles with potential wind
  headlines needed. Patchy to widespread blowing dust may become a
  road hazard.

- A pattern change could come as early as Wednesday night. Cooler
  temperatures increased chances of showers and storms for the
  entire Panhandles. While severe weather chances are low, the
  more favorable impacts would be localized flooding due to heavy
  rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Easterly winds this morning will lead to possible low clouds and
maybe even some patchy fog from Amarillo to Guymon eastward.  The
most prime opportunity for fog looks to be around 5AM-8AM, but it
could start as early as 2AM and end as late as 9AM.

This afternoon, an upper level trough stalled out just north of the
Dakotas in southern Canada will continue to suppress the high over
Mexico and keep a zonal flow over the Panhandles today and become
more southwesterly on Sunday.  While the upper jet will not be too
impressive today, the main driver will be a lee surface low that
will track across the Panhandles.  This will set up critical fire
weather for the southwest Panhandles, with elevated conditions
elsewhere.  While northeast winds will be in place on the back side
of the low, out ahead, of the low we`ll see southwest winds 15 to 20
mph with very low RH values, which will be the main driver of the
critical fire weather today.

Tonight a cold front is expected to track part way into the
Panhandles and stall out before retreating back to the northeast on
Sunday.  This is due to an upper level disturbance tracking over
southern NV, and putting the Panhandles under southwest flow, with a
strong jet aloft moving over the Panhandles.  Another lee surface
low, will develop over southeast CO on Sunday afternoon, and track
east across the Panhandles Sunday evening.  Ahead of that low will
be strong southwest winds and very low RH values for the entire
Panhandles.  The strongest winds will be in the west.  Additionally,
with a reasonably stacked jet aloft, there is certainly concerns for
wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range, and we could be looking a wind
highlights to accompany the critical fire weather conditions.  While
this setup would typically be favorable for a potential high wind
event, there is a weakness in the 500 mb flow reducing the wind
gusts form momentum transfer.  The lee surface low will track across
the OK Panhandle late in the evening and pull to the northeast
keeping a more westerly flow in the souther Panhandles overnight
Sunday night.  Overnight lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s in the
south due to the winds staying up in the 10 to 15 mph range.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Overall, upper trough over Canada will continue to keep high
pressure suppressed over Mexico and multiple disturbances are
expected to track across the CO/KS area on Monday and Tuesday. While
highs are expected to be in the 80s to 90s across the south, the
north will still be a bit of a debate, as a cold front is expected
to shift back and forth.  The OK Panhandle, while currently is
expected to be in the low 80s, could be in the 70s as well if the
cooler air stays to the south in the northern TX Panhandle.

Wednesday through Friday as the upper trough moves over the Great
Lakes and starts to push deeper to the southeast, that will set up
more of a northwest flow over the Panhandles, and possible showers
and storms to be embedded in that northwest flow. The big change
that we`ll be watching starts Wednesday night through at least
Friday and possibly into the weekend.  As another upper trough over
southern NV and a surface high off to the east will help draw up
both low level Gulf moisture and mid level Pacific moisture to the
Panhandles.  The cooler air over the Panhandles from the northwest
flow pattern combined with ample low and mid level moisture will set
up a more tropical sounding versus a severe weather setup.  While a
lot can change and it`s very early, if this setup can hold, it could
support a long fused rain event with some limited thunderstorms,
that could be very beneficial to the drought situation, and start to
tone down the daily fire weather threats.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF
period at all TAF sites. The possible exception would be with MVFR
cigs starting around 08-10Z for KGUY and the potential for around
12Z for KAMA, but confidence is not high enough to include in the
KAMA TAF at this time. MVFR cigs expected through about 14-16Z
before conditions improve to VFR. Winds will start out northerly
before veering southeasterly past 02-04Z and then
south/southwesterly past 12Z to the end of the TAF period with
winds 5-15 kts with higher gusts at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Critical Fire Weather in the southwest today as a surface low will
track across the Panhandles.  Given the lighter winds aloft, this
will be more of an RH driven critical Fire Weather day as winds will
be mainly 15 to 20 mph in the southwest. RFTI`s in the southwest
today look to be in the 2 to 4 range.  Elsewhere in the northeast on
the back side of the low, we can expect more northerly winds and
just elevated Fire Weather.

Sunday with a more classic setup for Fire Weather across the
Panhandles, we can expect winds 250 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50
mph possible.  Stronger winds will be in the western Panhandles RH
values are expected to be in the 10 to 15 percent range and that
will set up RFTI`s ranging from 4 to 6 in the central and west, an
din the 2 to 4 in the eastern Panhandles.  There will be a dryline
setup on Sunday, but most recent guidance expects it will mix out of
the area, leading to all areas needing a Red Flag Warning, but
recent guidance may suggest that the dryline doesn`t mix out and
some of the eastern Panhandles will have high RH values, and maybe
even a strong to severe storm develop.  So no plans on upgrading the
watch to a warning at this time, given the uncertainty of just how
high the RH values will be in the eastern Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>020-317.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>003-
     006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ006-011-012-
     016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ001>003.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...29